India retains position as fastest growing economy

04 June, 2018, 11:14 | Author: Orlando Hughes
  • Moody's cuts India's 2018 growth forecast to 7.3% from 7.5

At the sectoral level, the growth rate of GVA at constant (2011-12) prices in Q4 of 2017-18 for agriculture & allied sectors, industry and services sectors are estimated at 4.5 per cent, 8.8 per cent, and 7.7 per cent respectively.

The India GDP growth forecast of 7.5 per cent for 2019-20 is more than a percentage point higher than the 6.4 per cent growth forecast of China.

The Indian economy posted a growth rate of 7.7 per cent during the January to March quarter, enabling the country to retain its position as the fastest growing major economy, data released by the Central Statistics Office showed on Thursday.

The minister further said that an enormous growth in the field of manufacturing, agricultural and the construction has also been recorded, while highlighting that the manufacturing and construction areas also provide employment.

The uptick in GDP figure is supported by the buoyancy in the industrial production data in the fourth quarter.The core sector witnessed a growth of 4.7 % in April compared to 4.4 % in March. There has been improvement in growth rate in manufacturing and construction.

The growth rate for 2017-18 was higher than the government's first and second advance estimates - at 6.5% and 6.6% - and in sync with what the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the Economic Survey had estimated.

Real GVA (at basic constant 2011-12 prices for 2017-18) is now estimated at Rs 119.76 lakh crore, showing a growth rate of 6.5 per cent over first revised estimates of GVA for 2016-17 of Rs 112.48 lakh crore.

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In its May update of the Global Macro Outlook: 2018-19, Moody's cited higher oil prices and tighter financial conditions as the primary barrier to the growth rate.

Economic Affairs Secretary Subhash Chandra said all sectors of the economy, including manufacturing, construction and agriculture, did well in the fourth quarter of the last fiscal. GVA calculates the growth without the impact from indirect taxes and subsidies. "The pick-up in investment activity is also a good sign".

Forecasts ranged from 6.9 to 7.7 percent.

Health of the banking sector will also be crucial.

The Indian government earlier this month sought assurances from Saudi Arabia, OPEC's biggest producer, that oil prices would remain "stable and moderate". Higher cost of financing is also likely to slow investment and consumption spending across government, households and firms, said Abhishek Gupta, of Bloomberg Economics.

Moving on, interim Finance Minister Piyush Goyal, said, "GDP has been increasing continuously every quarter with 7.7% Q4 GDP".

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